Lev Shlosberg
21 December 2024
Source: Telegram
Putin’s global geopolitical goal, since 2007 at the latest (the “Munich Speech” on 10 February), is to revise international spheres of influence, to redraw political boundaries, a sort of “second Yalta”, through which arrangements for a new world order will be reached.
18+ THE FOLLOWING MATERIAL (INFORMATION) HAS BEEN PRODUCED AND DISTRUBUTED BY FOREIGN AGENT LEV SCHLOSBERG OR RELATES TO THE WORK OF FOREIGN AGENT LEV SCHLOSBERG. [This capitalised text is published by Lev Shlosberg as a requirement imposed by Russia’s foreign agent legislation and is reproduced here for information purposes only – to illustrate the repressive nature of Russian law – ed.]
The march to 24 February 2022 began on 10 February 2007. All of Putin’s historical postulations, including those on Soviet and pre-Soviet history, all of his takes on what the USA, NATO, the EU, the Council of Europe, and other nations have been doing, follow an identical logic: to mitigate the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th Century” insofar as possible and to reinstate Russia as a recognised axis of global power.
The new division of the globe among “the world’s strongest” is one of Putin’s core foreign policy aims. This “Second Yalta” has become his Mecca, but there was no way he could find a path to get there. History doesn’t want to repeat itself, nor will it. There will be no ‘Back to the USSR.’
However Putin, a deeply Soviet person both mentally and politically, whose worldview was formed before the collapse of the USSR, is striving to return to a golden age of greatness, where in his estimation things were done properly. This was a system based on a principle of military confrontation between the Great Powers, and Putin intends to bring about its return by force. Therefore the attempt to return to the greatness of a bygone age despite the opposition of other countries has turned into an attempt to change the direction of history by military force. At any cost.
A ”Second Yalta” as a direct parallel to the 1945 conference will not be possible. During the Second World War on 4-11 February, a conference took place in the village of Livadiya 3km away from Yalta among the nations of the anti-Hitler alliance: the USSR, the USA, and Great Britain to discuss, among other things the postwar world order. Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill led and represented a trio of nations allied against their common enemies of fascism and Nazism. Whilst fighting on different fronts throughout the Second World War, their goal was the same: to reach Berlin in order to smash the Wehrmacht and defeat Nazi Germany. The postwar world order was to be determined by the Second World War’s victors.
According to Putin’s logic, a “Second Yalta” should be attended by nations that are not just adversaries but are actually at war with each other. This means it should be a conference between enemies, not allies. How can such an agreement be achieved during a war?
Trying to force a “Second Yalta” seems to be escalating tensions. The Yalta of 1945 was not the product of hearts but minds. The participants had no illusions about each another, but respected one another as equals. This dynamic would not be possible today, and the main cause for this is the lack of trust which had already been lost before the war began. War also does not help build trust. It foments hatred, ill-will, bloodthirstiness, anguish, and vengefulness. This grim concoction will not produce a “Second Yalta”.
Ramping up tensions to fever pitch, under the mistaken impression of creating a “more advantageous position for negotiations”, will not lead to a Yalta like in 1945, but rather to a Fulton 1946, the consequences of which are well known from history. But those currently in power do not read history books, they simply want to write them. The events of the Second World War will not be repeated for anyone.
However, Fulton 1946 and Munich 2007 have their similarities, not just because they were given by belligerent leaders, but also because of the events which followed in subsequent decades. The Cold War did not solve a single global problem. In the end, it outlived itself. But a lot of time was lost as a result – a whole lifetime in fact.
The only scenario in which de-escalation and ending the war are possible is the signing of a ceasefire agreement and holding discussions without prior conditions. Stop killing people and start talking. This requires meeting each other halfway, and not succumbing to violence.
An “Oreshnik” may reach Kyiv, but it won’t reach a new Yalta.
Translated by Friedrich Berg
