This month Sergei Nikitin talks with Andreas Umland – a political scientist and expert in modern Russian and Ukrainian history and politics. Dr Umland, a German national, is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies and also teaches at the National University of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy in Ukraine. Dr. Umland has written extensively on the development of post-Soviet countries, including studies of the extreme right and nationalism. He speaks with us today from Kyiv.
This interview was recorded on 18 December 2025.
Questions
- A great deal has been happening in terms of peace negotiations this past week. How would you summarise the current position?
- How would you describe Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as negotiators? Are they competent? One is a real estate dealer and the other the son-in-law of the president.
- Is it a peace process that we see or something else – for example an attempt to force Ukraine to accept Russia’s land grab?
- How applicable in your view is the historical comparison with Hitler’s Germany? There has long been a consensus that appeasement was the wrong approach, and yet we see the USA pushing Ukraine and Europe to appease Russia by accepting Russia’s territorial gains.
- What is Trump’s motivation? He seems keener on getting a Ukraine to surrender than to achieve a just peace.
- We know that the Trump family has been enriching itself since Trump returned to office. Do you think there is an ‘economic’ aspect to Trump wanting to bring Russia in from the cold?
- The issue of territory seems to be non-negotiable for Ukraine and its European partners. Do you think that there ever could be agreement to change the borders because of aggression?
- If we take the issue of elections, the US is putting great pressure to hold elections in Ukraine, whereas we know that there have not been free and fair elections in Russia at least since the 1990s, or even the late Gorbachev period.
- In 12 months after the mid-term elections the domestic political situation in the US may change radically. What incentive is there for Ukraine to make major concessions to Trump when Trump may not have the overwhelming power to do as he wants in 12 months’ time?
- Turning to the economy, Russia seems to have been able to ride out the Western sanctions. How seriously in difficulty is the Russian economy?
- To some it seems that China is the key to unfolding events. Without Chinese support, Russia’s economy and military potential would be far weaker. Yet Western pressure on China seems to have little impact with regard to its support for Putin. Is there something that could change that situation?
- We recently learned that Putin’s close associate Dmitry Kozak resigned, apparently over opposition to the war. Is this a sign of wider discontent with Putin among Russia’s elites? What do we know about the tensions inside the Kremlin over current policy?
- Returning again to the ongoing negotiations, what developments do you foresee in the coming months?
