This month, Mary Page talks with Andreas Umland – a political scientist and expert in modern Russian and Ukrainian history and politics. Dr Umland currently divides his time mostly between Stockholm and Kyiv. He is an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies and also teaches at the National University of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy. Dr. Umland is also a senior scholar at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future in Kyiv. He has written extensively on the development of post-Soviet countries, including studies of the extreme right and nationalism. He speaks with us today from Kyiv.
This interview was recorded on 26 November 2024.
Mary’s Questions
- When we first talked in March 2022, Ukraine was making unexpected gains against Russia. Then in April 2024, the situation was more of a stalemate, with neither side making significant advances, but with Russia retaking some territory previously held by Ukraine.Now there are several new variables at play, including the presence of North Korean troops in Russian forces, the US authorization for Ukrainian use of long range missiles, and the election of Trump. What, in your view will be impact of these various factors and their significance?
- Let’s begin with the North Koreans. Why are they on the front line in the Ukraine today and what impact will this have – both in terms of military developments and in terms of how the rest of the world will react to this previously unforeseeable event?
- And long range missiles? The Ukrainians have been asking for this for a long time, but only now when a Trump presidency is on the horizon has the Biden administration given permission.
- Putin has regularly made threats of using nuclear weapons against Russia. In your estimation, are these threats credible? And what is the significance of the latest use of the new long-range missile by Russia against Ukraine?
- Turning to Trump, is there any way to see this as other than bad news for Ukraine? It’s well known that Trump never seems to criticise Putin and he is on record as saying he will ‘end the war in a day.’ At the least, President elect Trump seems likely to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. In your view, what terms would be acceptable to Ukraine’s leadership and to the people? Do you think Trump will exert pressure for Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia? Would any be acceptable? What sort of line would be drawn?
- Also on Trump, how do you see US relations with NATO under his second term? And what does this mean for the chances of Ukraine joining NATO? Will Putin insist on some kind of guarantee for Ukraine not to join NATO? How will this play out in Ukraine and among NATO members?
- Under a Trump presidency, how do you see the roles of the EU and the UK, which have both said that they are committed to supporting Ukraine for the long term? How do you think Europe will react to the different scenarios we’ve been discussing?
- This has been a brutal war, declared by Russia and lasting now over 1000 days. In addition to military casualties, countless civilians have been injured, maimed and displaced. Critical infrastructure is in ruins. To hold Russia accountable under international law, there are several efforts afoot. What is your view of the official and nongovernmental efforts currently underway?
- The International Criminal Court (on 17 March 2023) has issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and the Maria Lvova-Belova, Russian Commissioner for children’s rights, alleging the war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer of children. In June of this year the ICC also issued arrest warrants for Victor Sokolov, Sergey Kogylas, Segei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, officers in the Russian military for directing attacks at civilian objects and crimes against humanity for inhumane acts.
- There are also human rights advocates and journalists who are systematically documenting war crimes of both sides to serve as evidence in future trials.
- And to what extent is the Ukrainian public aware of and supportive of seeking justice for war crimes?
- If you were to go back to 2022, what could have been done to prevent or mitigate the destruction that has followed?
- There’s just a little more than a month until there’s a new administration in Washington. How do you think the war will proceed in these next few weeks running up to the inauguration?
