Blogs

8 October 2022

by Viktor Kogan-Yasny

From my archive

I ask forgiveness, this is a rough sketch, a train of thought, superficial writing and not a professional analysis of interrelationships.

1.

The sharp and radical damaging of relations between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China under Trump, ‘for the sake of the economy’ and for other reasons, almost inevitably has led to a very significant world imbalance and increased risks of global confrontation.

Against this background, Trump’s Doha agreement on Afghanistan, and then its ‘implementation’ in a way that was unexpected by U.S. intelligence under Biden, almost inevitably led to the destabilization of the post-Soviet space and to a change of roles in the Middle East and Transcaucasia. The only question was where and to what degree these regions would ‘go up in flames.’

Everywhere, ‘defensive reactions’ were to be seen, which among other things took the form of feverish military attacks – ‘just in case’ and in an effort to quickly try to take what appeared to be there for the taking.

So we see the already very weak diplomatic channels and levers of checks and balances have weakened yet further. And because Putin, ‘with Dugin’s ideological support,’ became actively involved in the process, events have taken on – for all the acuteness of the Ukrainian issue – a rather unexpected direction and a humanitarian disaster of unpredictable scale.

The problem is global. And it will have to be dealt with globally, when the slightest opportunity for a resolution appears. A balance has to be struck in line with the need to stop the humanitarian disaster. 

2.

If a war is criminal in nature then those who do not intend to participate in the crime, and by whose actions avoid participating in the crime, need to be protected. Those who deliberately refuse to provide such protection, having an opportunity to do so, are complicit in the crime. And they will face being put on trial when all those responsible will be put on trial – those who initiated the war, the killers, the bombers, the propagandists and others. Some will get life, others just three years, because there are degrees of guilt. But three years is enough at a future tribunal. And even if there is only a symbolic punishment, that is also important.

Translated by Simon Cosgrove